[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 4 10:46:35 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Two C-class flares were observed during 3 April. The
first appeared to be associated with a H-Alpha flare from region
989 and the second appeared to be associated with a H-Alpha flare
from region 988. A weak CME observed in LASCO imagery during
3 April appeared to be predominantly westward directed and is
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to
remain mostly at very low levels for the next three days, with
the very small chance of isolated C-class flares. Solar winds
speeds are expected to remain low for most of 4 April and then
increase late in the UT day and into 5 April due to the anticipated
arrival of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 22011111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 22020101
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 7 33221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 12 Mostly quiet with active to minor storm levels
possible late in the UT day.
05 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active with storm levels
possible at high latitudes.
06 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Mostly quiet levels are expected
for most of 4 April. Isolated active to minor storm periods are
possible late in the UT day of 4 April and into 5 April due to
the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 6 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced up to 30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to
enhanced by 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 20 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 15 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
slightly enhanced for the Aus/NZ region for 4-5 April. Depressions
of 5-15% may be observed at times during April 6 as the result
of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 95200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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