[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 14 09:37:59 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind
speed remained low and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
stable for most of the UT day (13 Sep). At the time of this report
data from both the ACE and STEREO-B satellites indicated imminent
arrival of the expected coronal hole wind stream with fluctuations
in the IMF and an increase in total field, solar wind density,
speed and temperature.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 4 12111122
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 3 12110022
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 2 11011011
Casey(Ant) 4 22111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1101 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 12 Unsettled
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently quiet. A coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to increase
geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels today (14 Sep)
returning to Quiet-Unsettled levels 15 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible 14 Sep in response
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Continuing Spread F conditions
possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight. Sporadic
E possible at high latitudes 14 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian region were depressed 10-20%
on average 13 Sep, particularly during the local day. In the
absence of any geomagnetic activity this is likely due to a
sustained period of inactivity on the sun and subsequent low
levels of EUV. These ionospheric conditions are likely to
continue 14 Sep. Increased geomagnetic activity on 14 Sep is
likely to result in further ionospheric depressions 15-16 Sep.
Continuing Spread F conditions likely in the S.Aus/NZ regions
overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 277 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 10400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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