[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 11 09:25:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed
is also very low (<350 km/s) and the IMF Bz component was stable
over the last 24 hours. A coronal hole is currently crossing
solar central meridian and the associated high speed solar wind
stream is expected to become geoeffective on the 13 Sep. A solar
sector boundary crossing is also expected on or around 13 Sep
increasing solar wind / IMF turbulence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 1 10------
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 1 10110000
Hobart 2 10111111
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 3 Quiet
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently quiet. Expected to
remain quiet for the next 2 days (11-12 Sep) due to nominal solar
wind / Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) conditions. A solar
sector boundary crossing and coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream are expected to increase geomagnetic activity from 13
Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 5 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
12 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F observed at some Southern Australian latitudes
overnight which may degrade HF comms by multipath if re-occurring.
Advisable to check ionograms for station near reflection point
of the HF circuit http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 Middle
and Low latitudes suffering daytime depressions as the ionosphere
slowly recovers from previous geomagnetic activity. Expect a
slowly recovering ionosphere to return to the monthly average
over the next 2 days. The lack of solar active regions with ionising
EUV radiation will make this recovery slow.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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