[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The solar wind has decreased over the last 24 hours 
to 430 km/s and is expected to continue to decrease to just under 
400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
has fluctuated between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221221
      Darwin               6   12122222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22222221
      Camden               4   22221110
      Canberra             4   12220220
      Hobart               6   12231221
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4411 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep     6    Quiet 
10 Sep     4    Quiet 
11 Sep     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Sep    -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when trace was present on ionogram.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
10 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated sporadic E noted at low and high latitudes, 
otherwise expect normal HF conditions, with possible slight depression
at low latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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