[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: There are no visible sunspots on the solar disk. The 
solar wind is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 
3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               3   11101112
      Townsville           4   12111121
      Learmonth            1   11100001
      Camden               0   10000001
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               1   01100011
      Casey(Ant)           3   11210111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0110 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct     4    Quiet 
13 Oct     4    Quiet 
14 Oct     4    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support continues to be weak due to very 
low levels of solar ionising radiation. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 267 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    12000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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