[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar region 0972 is not expected to produce any significant 
activity. The solar wind is expected to remain at normal levels 
over the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               2   21010012
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Camden               1   01100001
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               2   11120011
      Casey(Ant)           3   12210011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1001 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct     4    Quiet 
10 Oct     4    Quiet 
11 Oct     4    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
10 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
11 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were degraded at low/equatorial 
latitudes, particularly during night time hours. Cases of strong 
sporadic E were observed early in the UT day at low/equatorial 
latitudes. Expect similar conditions over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct    -5    About 25% below predicted monthly values, Northern 
                Australian/Equatorial regions 
10 Oct    -5    About 25% below predicted monthly values, Northern 
                Australian/Equatorial regions 
11 Oct    -5    About 25% below predicted monthly values, Northern 
                Australian/Equatorial regions 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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