[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 9 10:25:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions mostly average over the last 24
hours. Possible evidence of the early onset of a high-speed solar-wind
stream (HSSWS) late in the UT day. The SOHO and STEREO spacecraft
show the next hole still on the eastern limb however and this
may be a return to normal after recent low veolocities. Vsw was
low, near 260 km/sec, for 00-18UT but has started to rise in
the few hours and is ~340km/sec at 23UT, with corresponding rises
in temperature and falls in density observed at the ACE spacecraft
at L1. Solar wind speed may be expected to elevate over the weekend.
IMF Bz had no extended Bz southward periods with magnitude over
2nT. Nil spots or X-ray events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 21102222
Camden 5 23101112
Canberra 3 11101112
Hobart 4 11212112
Casey(Ant) 7 3-311122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 4 Quiet
10 Nov 5 Quiet
11 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetically quiet day globally and expected to remain
so for at least another day in the absence of extended periods
of IMF Bz southwards over 2nT. If the ris from 18UT in solar
wind speed indicates the early onset of the expected coronal
hole HSSWS, then the field may tend to unsettled over the weekend.
Some unsettled-active periods occurred at polar latitudes 00-08UT
due to low amplitude Bz southwards before an extended Bz north
11-15UT made polar latitudes very quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions in terms of reduced
MUFs and spread F have again been observed at most latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions for at least
the next 2 days with possibly more disturbed conditions caused
by unsettled geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind-stream.
High latitudes variable although usual extensive spread F evident.
Extended periods of IMF Bz southwards at magnitudes greater than
more strongly to the higher solar wind velocities.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
10 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
11 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November. General depressions
in MUFs still observed across Australian/NZ region due to lack
of solar ionising EUV but slightly recovered compared with previous
days. Sonde coverage across PNG and Pacific is out but MUFs assumed
similarly affected. Spread F again widely observed. An anomalous
enhancement was again observed across the northern Australian
sector post for 2-3hours before local midnight but reduced compared
with previous days. Depressed MUFs compared with predicted monthly
averages are expected to continue for the next 2 days at least.
The possible onset of a coronal hole HSSWS over the weekend could
elevate geomagnetic activity and affect MUFs, but expected to
only be moderate.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 259 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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