[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions were normal over the last 24 hours 
and are expected to remain normal over the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221011
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            3   12210002
      Camden               3   11121011
      Canberra             2   11120001
      Hobart               2   11120001
      Casey(Ant)           7   -3321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2021 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     5    Quiet 
04 Nov     5    Quiet 
05 Nov     5    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
04 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions have been observed 
at all latitidues over the last 24 hours and are expected to 
continue for the next 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
04 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
05 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 1 November 
and is current for interval 2-4 November. Depressions in Maximum 
Usable Frequencies (MUFs) have been observed across all Australasian 
regions. Depressions are expected to continue for the next 3 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    40200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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