[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 29 09:17:41 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed showed a steady decline from a high of 650 km/s
at 1 UT to 450 km/s at the time of this report (23:30 UT). The
recent equatorial coronal hole region has rotated beyond a
geo-effective position. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF,
fluctuated between +/- 2 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
at normal levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 5 23211011
Darwin 7 322---21
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 23221001
Camden 2 22110000
Canberra 3 23110000
Hobart 5 231110--
Casey(Ant) 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3333 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 5 Quiet
31 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Unsettled levels early
in the UT day before becoming Quiet from around 8 UT. The recurring
coronal hole region on the solar disk responsible for the geomagnetic
activity over the past 6 days has rotated beyond a geo-effective
position. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at Quiet
levels for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were observed
before local dawn at mid to high latitudes and during local night
time hours at high latitudes. At high latitudes the F-layer was
weak during the long night time hours offering poor ionospheric
support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 8 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 9 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 9 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were observed
before local dawn in far southern Australian regions and during
local night in Australian Antarctic regions. At high latitudes
the F-layer was weak during the long night time hours offering
poor ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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