[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 27 08:56:36 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was elevated throughout the UT day at around
650 km/s due to the continued influence of an equatorial coronal
hole region. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT with no periods of sustained southward values.
Solar wind speed is not expected to increase further and should
decline to normal levels over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Active
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 15 33344321
Darwin - --------
Townsville 16 33344322
Learmonth 21 33355322
Camden 11 23343211
Canberra 13 23344211
Hobart 11 23343211
Casey(Ant) 12 33333321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 16 2443 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 16 Unsettled to active
28 May 12 Unsettled
29 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Active levels with Minor
Storm periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity was in
response to the elevated solar wind speed throughout the UT day.
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to Quiet levels over
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly
values throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were
observed just after local sunset at low latitudes. At mid to
high and high latitudes the F-layer was weak during the long
night time hours offering poor ionospheric support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 5 Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support
in polar regions.
28 May 9 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were slightly below predicted monthly
values throughout the UT day. Cases of strong sporadic E were
observed just after local sunset across equatorial PNG/pacific
regions. In Southern Australian and Antartic polar regions the
F-layer was weak during the long night time hours offering poor
ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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