[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 25 09:38:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
With region 0956 rotating beyond the western limb there are no
visible sunspot regions on the solar disk. From 2 UT solar wind
speed increased steadily due to the influence of an equatorial
coronal hole region. Wind speed was 650 km/s at the time of this
report (23:30 UT) and solar wind density remains elevated. Bz
fluctuated between +/- 5nT with no periods of sustained southward
values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Active to minor storm
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 18 33324434
Darwin 17 33324433
Townsville 20 43324434
Learmonth 35 54425554
Camden 15 33323433
Canberra 17 33324433
Hobart 17 33324433
Casey(Ant) 27 33333635
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 113 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 42 4356 5265
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 25 Active to minor storm
26 May 20 Active
27 May 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 23 May and
is current for interval 24-26 May. The geomagnetic field ranged
from Unsettled to Minor Storm levels over the UT day. Minor Storm
conditions were observed at higher latitudes with active conditions
at mid latitudes and unsettled to active conditions at low latitudes.
This geomagnetic activity was in response to the elevated solar
wind speed and density throughout the UT day. The geomagnetic
field is expected to remain active for the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
26 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
27 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were below predicted monthly values
at all latitudes for the first half of the UT day. Isolated cases
of short lived strong Sporadic E were observed at all latitudes.
At high latitudes the F-layer is very weak offering little or
no ionospheric support during night time hours and being largely
screened by the E-layer during the short day-light hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Insufficient data available.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 15 Slightly below predicted monthly values across
equatorial/pacific and Australian regions. Very
Weak F-layer support in polar regions.
26 May 15 Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support
in polar regions.
27 May 20 Near predicted monthly values. Weak F-layer support
in polar regions.
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were below predicted monthly values
across all Australasian regions for the first half of the UT
day. Isolated cases of short lived strong Sporadic E were also
observed at a number of stations. Across southern polar regions
the F-layer is very weak offering poor ionospheric support during
night time hours and being largely screened by the E-layer during
the short day-light hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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