[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 8 09:46:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: C-class flares activity is still possible from region
953. A shock in all parameters of the solar wind was observed
at 0742UT on 7 May suggesting the glancing impact of the CME
of 3 May and/or a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream.
Solar wind speeds have increased steadily since the shock and
are presently approximately 600 km/s. Elevated solar wind speeds
are expected to persist for 8 May and decrease slowly 9-10 May.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0724UT
on 07 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 10 11223423
Darwin 11 21223423
Townsville 11 22223423
Learmonth 16 11324533
Camden 9 11223422
Canberra 9 00223423
Hobart 11 11213433
Casey(Ant) 12 22332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods.
09 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
10 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: An isolated active period was observed 15-18UT due to
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream and/or the glancing
impact of the CME of 3 May. Further isolated active periods are
possible for 8 May with mostly unsettled to quiet conditions
expected for 9-10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for
8-9 May. Slight depressions are possible at times over the next
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 May 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 May 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the very small chance of SWFs for
8-9 May. Slight depressions are possible at times over the next
few days due to slightly increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 275 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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