[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 5 09:33:40 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Further C-class flares are possible from region 953.
Solar wind speeds have remained below 360 km/s over the past
24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase during 6
May as a coronal hole rotates into a geoffective position. A
westward directed CME observed during 3 May, most likely associated
with the C-class flare activity observed late in the UT day of
2 May, has the small chance of a glancing impact late 5-6 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11111110
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 22121121
Learmonth 3 11122010
Camden 1 10011000
Canberra 0 00011000
Hobart 1 00111100
Casey(Ant) 4 22111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1021 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 8 Quiet with active periods possible late in the
UT day.
06 May 18 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods.
07 May 15 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly quiet for 5 May
with activity expected to increase late 5-6 May due a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream and/or the possible glancing
impact of a CME. Active periods are expected to persist into
7 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the small chance of further SWFs.
Slight depressions are possible at times from 6 May due to an
anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 15 about 5% above predicted monthly values
06 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the small chance of further SWFs.
Slight depressions are possible at times from 6 May due to an
anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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