[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 07

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: A C9/1N flare (as observed by Culgoora observatory) 
was observed from region 953 at 2344UT on 2 May. Further C-class 
flares are possible with the chance of M-class flare activity. 
Solar wind speeds have continued to decline and are presently 
around 350 km/s. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111101
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           5   22111212
      Learmonth            4   22111102
      Camden               1   11100101
      Canberra             0   10000100
      Hobart               1   11100100
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3331 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May     5    Quiet 
04 May     5    Quiet 
05 May    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly quiet for the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next few days with SWFs possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next few days with SWFs possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 513 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    87700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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