[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:33:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low
to low with the possibility of isolated C-class flares. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between
+/-2nT over the last 24 hours. The solar wind has decreased to
460km/s and is expected to continue to decrease to approximately
400km/s. The LASCO SOHO images show what appears to be a far-side
CME on the east limb commencing at approximately 13:42 on 01 May 07.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22312111
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 9 33322212
Camden 6 22312111
Canberra 7 22412111
Hobart 8 22412121
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 5542 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 4 Quiet
03 May 4 Quiet
04 May 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however at high
latitudes there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer was
detected via the ionosondes and at low latitudes there was a
mild depression during local day. Expect near normal HF conditions
over the next several days with isolated cases of sporadic E
possible at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 11 near predicted monthly values
03 May 11 near predicted monthly values
04 May 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however in the
antarctic region there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer
was detected via the ionosondes and in the equatorial region
there was a mild depression during the local day. Also noted
at equatorial and northern Australian regions were isolated cases
of sporadic E. Over the next several days expect the HF conditions
to be near normal with isolated cases of sporadic E at equatorial
and northern Australian regions. Spread F noted on the Hobart
ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 630 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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