[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 31 09:30:56 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Solar wind parameters
are expected to increase on 01 Apr with the onset of a high speed
solar wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Darwin 4 22112111
Townsville 7 22223112
Learmonth 7 32223011
Camden 4 22132000
Canberra 4 22132000
Hobart 4 21132000
Casey(Ant) 7 33322000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 5 Quiet
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for day one of the forecast period. An
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected from 01 Apr onwards
with the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream
from an equatorially positioned coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes. Occasional moderate degradations
at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted values,
Localised depressions after dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted values,
Occasional localised degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions, with isolated depressions
observed after local dawn. Mostly normal HF conditions observed
for Antarctic regions with some disturbed periods. Similar HF
conditions are expected for day one of the forecast period. Elevated
geomagnetic activity after day two may result in disturbances
S Aus/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 32100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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