[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 31 09:30:56 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to increase on 01 Apr with the onset of a high speed 
solar wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Darwin               4   22112111
      Townsville           7   22223112
      Learmonth            7   32223011
      Camden               4   22132000
      Canberra             4   22132000
      Hobart               4   21132000
      Casey(Ant)           7   33322000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     5    Quiet 
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for day one of the forecast period. An 
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected from 01 Apr onwards 
with the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream 
from an equatorially positioned coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours for low to mid latitudes. Occasional moderate degradations 
at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted values, 
      Localised depressions after dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted values,
      Occasional localised degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    20    near predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions 
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for 
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions, with isolated depressions 
observed after local dawn. Mostly normal HF conditions observed 
for Antarctic regions with some disturbed periods. Similar HF 
conditions are expected for day one of the forecast period. Elevated 
geomagnetic activity after day two may result in disturbances 
S Aus/Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    32100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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