[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 28 09:30:15 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low on 27 March
UT day. The effect of the coronal hole kept the solar wind
stream strengthened. The solar wind speed remained between
420 and 450 km/s until 1700UT and then showed a rise to 580
km/s by 1900UT. The solar wind speed then showed a gradual
decrease until the time of this report and it is around 550
km/s at 2300UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate (mostly around
+/-6 nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost
the whole day. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to
keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 28 March and then
show a gradual decline. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Moslty quiet to
unsettled.
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 23232222
Darwin 11 23233--2
Townsville 12 23333--2
Learmonth 9 232-----
Camden 7 -2231122
Canberra 8 23231222
Hobart 7 22231222
Casey(Ant) 14 34332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1121 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active
periods possible.
29 Mar 5 Quiet
30 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity levels to
unsettled and sometimes to active levels on 28 March. The
effect of the coronal hole is expected to gradually diminish
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs are possible on high latitude circuits
on 28 March due to the possibility of an enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 16 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 18 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most parts of the Aus/NZ region for the next three days
with some possibility of minor degrdations and MUF depressions
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions at times on 28 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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