[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 25 09:44:02 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained very low on 24 March.
The effect of the coronal hole kept the solar wind stream
strengthened. The solar wind velocity remained between 350
and 380 km/s almost the whole UT day today. The north-south
component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
negative ( mostly between -5 and -10 nT) until around 1300UT
today, then turned positive and stayed positive for the
remaining part of the UT until the time of this report. The
effect of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar
wind stream strengthened for the next two to three days.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with an isolated active period for
12-15UT. Minor storm levels were observed at some higher latitude
stations for 12-15UT.
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 23343112
Darwin 12 23343122
Townsville 13 33343222
Learmonth 16 24353122
Camden 11 23343111
Canberra 16 23454111
Hobart 18 24454111
Casey(Ant) 11 33243112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 63 (Active)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1112 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
26 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
27 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-26 March. The effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may raise the
geomagnetic activity levels to mostly unsettled to active
levels on 25 and 26 March. Isolated minor storm periods may
also be observed on 25 and 26 March, especially if Bz stays
southwards for prolonged intervals of time. The effect of
the coronal hole is expected to start weakenig from 27 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at mid latitude locations
on 25 and 26 March and at high latitudes on 27 March. Mild
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible on high latitude circuits on 25 and
26 March due to the possibility of an enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most part of the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
with some possibility of minor degrdations and MUF depressions
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions at times on 25 and 26 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 37900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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