[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
speed is approximately 455 km/s at present. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-2 
nT over the last 24 hours. A small, equatorially located coronal 
hole is positioned at central meridian. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Darwin               0   0000000-
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            5   21122202
      Camden               3   11112101
      Canberra             2   10012101
      Hobart               3   11112111
      Casey(Ant)           8   23332111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3322 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar     5    Quiet 
20 Mar     5    Quiet 
21 Mar     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
21 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        

COMMENT: Depressions likely at low latitudes during night hours. 
At mid latitudes, mild depressions possible mostly during daytime. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Mar     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-40% depressions
      05-15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%, mostly between 00-06 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. 40% depressed at Casey
      13-14 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions at 
                low and mid latitudes likely to continue. 
20 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions at 
                low and mid latitudes likely to continue. 
21 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions at 
                low and mid latitudes likely to continue. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 555 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"