[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 17 10:16:35 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
has fluctuated between 580 and 660 km/s over the last 24 hours. 
Presently, the solar wind is approximately 590 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 
5nT over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected 
to slowly decrease over the next several days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112122
      Townsville          10   23223223
      Camden               7   23112113
      Canberra             7   23112123
      Hobart               5   22112122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--33123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1232 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    12    Unsettled 
18 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled 
for 17 March with isolated active levels, particularly at higher 
latitudes. This is mainly due to the earth entering a turbulent 
sector in the solar wind as we appoach equinox. The following 
several days should gradually settled to quiet levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during local daytime 
hours on 16 March at low latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF conditions
today (17 March) with the possibility of mild depressions on 
18 and 19 March due to geomagnetic activity and low sunspot nuumbers. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Mar     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during the local daytime 
hours on 16 March in the equatorial region. Expect normal HF 
conditions today (17 March) in the Australian region with a
possibility of mild depressions on 18 and 19 March due to 
geomagnetic activity and low sunspot numbers. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 628 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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