[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 17 10:16:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind
has fluctuated between 580 and 660 km/s over the last 24 hours.
Presently, the solar wind is approximately 590 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-
5nT over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected
to slowly decrease over the next several days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22112122
Townsville 10 23223223
Camden 7 23112113
Canberra 7 23112123
Hobart 5 22112122
Casey(Ant) 11 3--33123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1232 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 12 Unsettled
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
for 17 March with isolated active levels, particularly at higher
latitudes. This is mainly due to the earth entering a turbulent
sector in the solar wind as we appoach equinox. The following
several days should gradually settled to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-Fair
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during local daytime
hours on 16 March at low latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF conditions
today (17 March) with the possibility of mild depressions on
18 and 19 March due to geomagnetic activity and low sunspot nuumbers.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during the local daytime
hours on 16 March in the equatorial region. Expect normal HF
conditions today (17 March) in the Australian region with a
possibility of mild depressions on 18 and 19 March due to
geomagnetic activity and low sunspot numbers.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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