[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 15 10:42:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds have remained elevated over the past 24 hours at approximately
600-700 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. The
speed has been declining in the last 12 hours and should be below
600km/s in the early hours of 15th March UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 11 32------
Camden 8 23223211
Canberra 9 23233211
Hobart 9 23233212
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 62 (Active)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 5543 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet to unsettled levels for 15 March, trending to quiet as
solar wind speed decreases with westward passage of the coronal
hole. IMF Bz has fluctuated near zero so high latitudes are only
moderately disturbed. Conditions should be mostly quiet for 16-17
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed during Australian daylight
hours during 14 March at mid latitudes. Nightime HF conditions
at mid-latitudes were mostly near normal in the second half of
the UT day, probably due to lower geomagentic activity from decreasing
solar wind speed. Equatorial latitudes showed daytime enhancements.
Polar latitudes were slightly disturbed from global geomagnetic
activity increase. HF conditions should be returning to normal
for 15 March with although recovery may be slow due to the absence
of sunspots and ionising flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of up to 15% were observed at times during
14 March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF
conditions should be returning to normal for 15 March with the
continuing chance of 5-15% depressions if recovery is slow due
to lack of sunspot activity or solar wind declines less quickly
than expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 671 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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