[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 13 10:43:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to increase slowly
during the past 24 hours up to approximately 600 km/s due a coronal
hole wind stream. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to
continue for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Mostly quiet
to unsettled with an isolated active period for 12-15UT.
Minor storm levels were observed at some higher latitude
stations for 12-15UT.
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 23234233
Darwin - --------
Townsville 13 23233333
Learmonth - --------
Camden 13 22235222
Canberra 16 22145233
Hobart 13 22135322
Casey(Ant) 18 44334233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth NA
Camden 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 92 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1013 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 18 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
unsettled levels for 13 March. Isolated active periods and minor
storm levels at high latitudes are also possible due to a high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Conditions should return
to mostly unsettled to quiet levels for 14-15 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions of up to 25% were observed at times during
12 March. HF conditions should return to mostly normal for 13
March with the chance of 5-15% depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to
depressed 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% to mostly near predicted
monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 12 March
and is current for interval 12-13 March. Depressions of up to
25% were observed at times during 12 March. HF conditions should
return to mostly normal for 13 March with the chance of 5-15%
depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 37700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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