[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 28 09:43:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
velocity declined from a maximum of 480km/s to be ~400km/s at
the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field decreased in magnitude and fluctuated
between +/-5nT between 0000UT and 0800UT followed by a notable
southward period between 0800UT and 1400UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 7 23222212
Learmonth 6 23222101
Camden 4 22122001
Canberra 6 22223101
Hobart 6 22223101
Casey(Ant) 7 33222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 0001 1433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 6 Quiet
30 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over the next
24 hours as solar wind parameters begin to abate. Quiet conditions
expected on 29Jul-30Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions for high
latitudes. Similar conditions expected over the next 24 hours,
with possible MUF depressions ~20% for mid to high latitudes.
Mostly normal conditions expected for 29Jul-30Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 115% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for both Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced
periods during local evening for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced
periods along with disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
with possible MUF depressions of 20% during local day for Northern
AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 24500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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