[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 4 09:28:41 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: A solar sector boundary crossing was observd at 03/0800UT.
Subsequently solar wind speed increased to around 450 km/s. Background
solar X-ray flux remains at very low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 11123312
Darwin 7 22122312
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 8 11122413
Camden 7 11123312
Canberra 7 11123312
Hobart 6 10113322
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The observed geomagnetic field was quiet for the first
half of the UT day. Following a solar sector boundary crossing
at 08UT, solar wind speed increased mildly. There was a period
of mildly southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity, resulting
in an interval of unsettled conditions during the second half
of the UT day. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days
with the possibility of unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values, with localised
periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed throughout the
region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Mild
depressions possible around local dawn Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 39100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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