[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 4 09:28:41 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: A solar sector boundary crossing was observd at 03/0800UT. 
Subsequently solar wind speed increased to around 450 km/s. Background
solar X-ray flux remains at very low levels. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11123312
      Darwin               7   22122312
      Townsville           7   12222322
      Learmonth            8   11122413
      Camden               7   11123312
      Canberra             7   11123312
      Hobart               6   10113322
      Casey(Ant)           -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1011 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The observed geomagnetic field was quiet for the first 
half of the UT day. Following a solar sector boundary crossing 
at 08UT, solar wind speed increased mildly. There was a period 
of mildly southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity, resulting 
in an interval of unsettled conditions during the second half 
of the UT day. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days 
with the possibility of unsettled intervals. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values, with localised
      periods of disturbance.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul     8    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed throughout the 
region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Mild 
depressions possible around local dawn Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    39100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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