[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 2 09:14:29 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady throughout the UT day
at around 420 km/s. A small recurring equatorial coronal hole
region is likely to become geo-effective in the next 24 to 48
hours producing moderately elevated wind speeds and unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 12222002
Camden 2 11121001
Canberra 2 01121001
Hobart 2 01121000
Casey(Ant) 5 12212112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: A small equatorial coronal hole region is likely to
become geo-effective in 24 to 48 hours producing some Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications are likely to experience
night time degradations due to spread F.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of around 15% were observed during local
daylight hours in Equatorial PNG, Pacific and Far Northern Australian
regions. Spread F is likely to degrade communications, particularly
at night.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list