[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 84/25


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   80/20              80/20              75/13

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has increased over the 24 hours 
to be at approximately 500 km/s. This increase in speed may be 
due to an equatorially located coronal hole, although
geoeffectiveness was not expected until around the 16 Jan.
Minor variations in the Bz component of the IMF have continued.
Region 933 (S04W72) produced a C1.0 flare at 0104 UT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23322222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            9   23322222
      Camden               8   23312222
      Canberra             9   23322222
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--33332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        06
           Planetary             08                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        04
           Planetary             07   1222 2311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
13 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: An equatorially located coronal hole is expected to 
become geoeffective around the 16 January. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E has been observed in the Australasian 
region over the past day. HF communications may be disrupted/degraded 
by sporadic E formation at times over the next 24 hours. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jan    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 

COMMENT: Sporadic E may affect HF communications at times. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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