[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 5 10:08:17 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Isolated C-class flares possible from regions 10933 
and 10935. Solar wind speed should steadily decrease though 05 
January to near normal levels as coronal hole influence dissipates, 
presently 620km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has fluctuated between +/- 3nT over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32333322
      Darwin              10   32323213
      Townsville          13   33333322
      Learmonth           13   33333322
      Camden              11   22333322
      Canberra            11   22333322
      Hobart              10   22333312
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--43323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             20   2434 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity levels are expected to return to 
quiet to unsettled levels for the next several days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for 05 January 
at high latitudes, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain 
mostly normal. Sporadic E has been noted in the Australian region 
over the last several days particularly in the evening and morning 
hours, expect this trend to continue for 05 January. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jan    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    14    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at high latitudes for 
the next UT day, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain 
mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may 
affect HF comms at times, particularly noted in the evening and 
morning hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 661 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   245000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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