[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 5 10:08:17 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Isolated C-class flares possible from regions 10933
and 10935. Solar wind speed should steadily decrease though 05
January to near normal levels as coronal hole influence dissipates,
presently 620km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has fluctuated between +/- 3nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 32333322
Darwin 10 32323213
Townsville 13 33333322
Learmonth 13 33333322
Camden 11 22333322
Canberra 11 22333322
Hobart 10 22333312
Casey(Ant) 17 4--43323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20 2434 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity levels are expected to return to
quiet to unsettled levels for the next several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for 05 January
at high latitudes, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal. Sporadic E has been noted in the Australian region
over the last several days particularly in the evening and morning
hours, expect this trend to continue for 05 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 14 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at high latitudes for
the next UT day, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may
affect HF comms at times, particularly noted in the evening and
morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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