[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:29:58 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days. Recurrence suggests a coronal hole windstream onset on
Feb 11.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22322321
Darwin 7 22222311
Townsville 9 22322322
Learmonth 10 33322321
Camden 7 22222311
Canberra 8 23222311
Casey(Ant) 14 3-433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3233 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 16 active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes, tending towards generally quiet later in the UT day.
Isolated active intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect
quiet to unsettled conditions days one and two. Recurrence suggests
a coronal hole wind stream onset on day three. Active conditions
possible at low to mid latitudes with minor storm periods possible
at high latitudes on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance mainly at mid
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions
next two days. Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes
possible day three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus region. Periods of disturbance during local day
Mid to S Aus regions due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect
mostly normal ionospheric support next two days with probability of
localised intervals of disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions.
Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions day three
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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