[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 20 10:43:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours
down to approximately 550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22322222
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 11 23332223
Camden 7 22322122
Canberra 7 22322122
Hobart 7 22322212
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 3434 4233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels were observed across the Australian
region over the past 24 hours with some minor storm levels observed
at high latitudes. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 19 December
and is current for interval 20 December only. Depressions of
up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were
also observed at times across the Australian region over the
past 24 hours which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions.
Mild depressions are expected over the next few days due to declining
solar activity, with significant depressions possible at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list