[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 17 10:20:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day due to a C-class
flare. Active Region 10978 has decreased significantly in spots
and area, therefore, solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels for the next three days. Expect a recurring coronal
hole to be geoeffective today (17 December). The solar wind stream
is presently approximately 360 km/s and is expected to increase
throughout the UT day. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was between +/- 4nT for the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 4 21111202
Camden 3 12201111
Canberra 3 11200112
Hobart 3 11201211
Casey(Ant) 10 3-322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 16 active
18 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
19 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Today (17 December) expect active geomagnetic levels
due to high speed solar wind stream with the possiblity of isolated
minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect possible mild MUF depression at high latitudes
on the 17-18 December due to geomagnetic activity. Also note
solar activity is steadily decreasing and as a result mild MUF
depressions may occur in the low to mid latitudes due to a decrease
in ionosation of the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.57E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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