[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind has declined to around 530 km/s. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to return to near normal levels 
by the 30 August. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
with active to minor storm levels observed at some stations 06-15 UT. 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23343121
      Darwin               9   22333121
      Townsville          12   22443122
      Learmonth           16   33354121
      Camden              12   23443021
      Canberra            12   23253021
      Hobart              11   23343121
      Casey(Ant)          12   33343121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3242 2233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Aug     5    Quiet 
31 Aug     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: There is the possibility of isolated active levels at 
high latitudes on 29 August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
31 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Night spread F may degrade communications at mid and 
high latitudes. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      at Niue 01-03 UT and depressions up to 50% at Vanimo
      13-20 UT. Night spread F observed at Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% at
      Darwin 01-03 UT. Night sporadic E observed at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      most stations during the night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Night
      spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night spread F likely at mid and high latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 664 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   240000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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