[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 26 09:34:25 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Coronal
hole wind stream onset occurred around the middle of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 21123222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 10 22223332
Camden 6 11133121
Canberra 5 10123221
Hobart 7 11133221
Casey(Ant) 7 22123122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The anticipated coronal hole wind stream onset occurred
around 12UT. Solar wind speed increased from 300 to 400 km/s
over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field showed fluctuations of +/-5nT. The
geomagnetic field was quiet during the first half of the day,
becoming unsettled in the second half. Expect unsettled
conditions days one and two with the chance of active periods
mainly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief depressions observed at low latitudes. Chance
of disturbed periods mainly at high latitudes days one and two
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable enhancements over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial/N Aus region briefly depressed after local
dawn. Periods of sporadic-E observed N Aus region mainly local
morning. Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
regions, mostly local night. Variable daytime enhancements observed
Antarctic region. Chance of disturbances S Aus/Antarctic regions
days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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