[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 10 09:34:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The coronal hole effect further weakened today
as the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 470
km/s to 390 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor (upto around +/-2nT) fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value almost the whole day. Effect of another
recurrent coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar
wind stream from 10 August. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 4 11222111
Camden 2 11120000
Canberra 2 10120001
Hobart 4 11222111
Casey(Ant) 6 13311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2321 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
11 Aug 15 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
12 Aug 8 Mostly quiet, unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity
to unsettled to active levels on 10 and possibly 11 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on high and some
mid latitude locations on 10 and possibly 11 August due
to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of enhancements and depressions recorded with
minor to significant degradations in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 15%.
11 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
5 to 10%.
12 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be possible at times in the
Southern Auz/NZ regions on 10 and possibly 11 August due
to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 545 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list