[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is approximately 530km/s and may slightly 
increase later in the UT day due to a weak coronal hole moving 
into its geoeffective position. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 3 nT with neither the southward 
or northward orientation dominating. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22233111
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           8   22233212
      Learmonth            9   -3233211
      Camden               4   11222101
      Canberra             5   11233100
      Hobart               6   11233111
      Casey(Ant)           8   22323112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3431 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    12    Unsettled 
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods today, 01 August, due 
to weak coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Jul    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced 10-15% during the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values for local day.
      Ionograms did not show many traces for local
      night hours. However, when present they were
      near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    10    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted sporadic E in the low and high latitudes, particularly 
in Darwin during the local early morning hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 571 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   224000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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