[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 30 09:20:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Over the next several days expect solar activity to be very low
to low due to the complex magnetic field associated with solar
region 10953 and it size, isolated C-class flares possible. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated between
-5 and +4, however was predominantly southward over the last
24 hours. The solar wind is presently 690km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 23433322
Darwin 11 23333222
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 17 33434323
Camden 12 23433222
Canberra 13 23433322
Hobart 15 23443322
Casey(Ant) 18 344333-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 96 (Minor storm)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 5544 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 12 Unsettled
01 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active
levels today 30 August due to a high speed wind stream induced
by a recurrent coronal hole. The following several days will
most like be unsettled to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however at high
latitudes there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer was
detected via the ionosondes. Over the next several days expect
mild depressions at mid to high latitudes initialy, followed
by possible mild depressions at mid to low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 May 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall HF conditions were near normal, however in the
antarctic region there were isolated periods were no foF2 layer
was detected via the ionosondes. Over the next several days expect
mild depressions in the southern Australian and antarctic regions
initialy, followed by possible mild depressions in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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