[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 18 09:43:36 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain low over the next few days. A new active
region, AR952, was numbered today. Solar wind speed increased
slightly over the second half of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 12223232
Darwin 8 12213232
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 12 13323333
Camden 8 02223232
Canberra 8 01223332
Hobart 8 02223232
Casey(Ant) 8 13322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased mildly over the second half
of the UT day. A sustained period of southward IMF Bz was observed
over the mid part of the UT day. Isolated periods of unsettled
conditions were observed at some stations during the second half
of the UT day. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Expect
mostly quiet conditions day one. Conditions may become unsettled
day two due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. A Forbush
decrease reported by the Mawson cosmic ray instrument was an
artifact of instrument maintenance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low latitudes. Otherwise
HF conditions mostly normal. Similar conditions are expected
for the next three days with the chance of variable conditions
at low to mid latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity may result
in disturbances at high latitudes days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed mainly local day/evening for
Equatorial region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three
days with the chance of MUF depressions for Equatorial/N Aus
regions mainly during local day. Periods of disturbance possible
S Aus/Antarctic region on days two and three in association with
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 39700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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