[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 06

Tue Sep 19 09:55:31 EST 2006

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have been elevated during 18 September, 
up to approximately 650km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33343233
      Darwin              14   33343223
      Learmonth           22   32355333
      Culgoora            13   32343232
      Camden              13   32343232
      Canberra            15   33343233
      Hobart              15   33343233
      Casey(Ant)          16   433333-3

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              85   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   1124 4143     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled with the small chance of active 
                levels and isolated minor storm periods. 
20 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the Earth is under the 
influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. This 
resulted in an isolated active period at low-mid latitudes and 
storm periods at high latitudes during 18 September. Mostly unsettled 
conditions are expected for 19 September, with the chance of 
isolated active levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% were observed at times during 
local day for low latitudes, otherwise mostly normal conditions 
have been observed for 19 September. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Sep    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% were observed at times during 
local day for low latitudes, otherwise mostly normal conditions 
have been observed for 19 September. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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