[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 3 09:53:54 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only minor B-class events. Solar wind velocity has risen
from 375km/s at 0000UT to be 500km/s at the time of this report,
this is in accordance with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the
next 24 hours with only a slight chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22122222
Darwin 7 12123222
Learmonth 8 21123232
Culgoora 4 11122121
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 11122221
Hobart 4 11122121
Casey(Ant) 13 33332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3122 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 12 Unsettled
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions where observed over
the last 24 hours, while solar wind velocity increased as a coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position. Bz, the north-south component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the UT day. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions with possible Active periods are expected
for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed low latitudes.
Disturbed conditions observed for high latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions observed for mid latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days, with possible disturbed periods
for mid to high latitudes if geomagnetic activity levels increase.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed for Northern
Aus and Equatorial regions during local evenings. Disturbed conditions
observed for Antarctic regions with mostly normal ionospheric
conditions for Southern Aus and NZ regions. Similar conditions
are expected over the next 2 days with possible disturbed periods
for Southern Aus/NZ regions and Antarctic regions from an expected
increase in geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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