[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 1 09:47:13 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only B class activity. Solar wind velocty continued to decline,
from 440km/s at 0000UT to be 380km/s at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours,
with the slight chance of C-class events from new region 906.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22322332
Darwin 10 22322332
Learmonth 10 22312333
Culgoora 8 12322321
Camden 6 12222222
Canberra 9 12322332
Hobart 9 12322332
Casey(Ant) 10 32422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1132 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Sep 7 Quiet
03 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the last
24 hours to 380km/s. Bz, the north-south component of the IMF
has remained southward since 1200UT, with a maximum of -7nT.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed for low latitudes
and disturbed periods for high latitudes, while overall mostly
normal HF conditions observed for all regions over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed peridos observed for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions during local evening. Disturbed periods
observed for Antarctic regions with mostly normal ionospheric
conditions for Southern Aus and NZ regions. Possible depressions
for Northern Aus and Southern Aus NZ regions over the next 24
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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