[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 31 09:22:13 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Solar wind
speed has declined since 06UT as the currently geoeffective coronal
hole rotates beyond the west solar limb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32232211
Darwin 7 22232112
Learmonth 7 32232210
Culgoora - --------
Camden 6 22232111
Canberra 8 22242111
Hobart 8 22242210
Casey(Ant) 11 4--32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 3443 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 5 Quiet
01 Nov 4 Quiet
02 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions observed
at high latitudes. Mostly quiet conditions observed at low to
mid latitudes, with an interval of unsettled conditions around
10UT. Solar wind speed has declined since 06UT, and the Bz component
of the IMF has shown minor fluctuatons about neutral. Solar wind
parameters should continue to decline as the currently geoeffective
coronal hole rotates beyond the west solar limb. Expect mostly
quiet conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at low latitudes.
Conditions have been mildly depressed at low to mid latitudes.
Improving conditions observed at high latitudes as geomagnetic
activity declines. Expect continuing low-latitude variability.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed Equatorial/PNG
regions. Mild depressions observed Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions.
Improving conditions observed Antarctic region. Expect continuing
variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions. Intervals
of depressed conditions possible in Equatorial/Aus regions next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list