[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 19 09:49:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the last
24 hours from 370 km/s to below 320 km/s. It is expected to rise
again over the next several days due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geo-effective. Solar activity was
very low and is expected to remain very low as there are no active
sunspots regions currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11120011
Darwin 2 11110011
Learmonth 2 11110011
Culgoora 4 22120111
Camden 2 11120011
Canberra 2 01020011
Hobart 2 01021011
Casey(Ant) 5 12311121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1001 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Oct 25 Active. Chance minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 20-21 October. Quiet geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours as solar wind parameters
continue to decline. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours. An equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected
to be in geoeffective position within the next 48 hours which
is expected to produce significant geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions observed at low and
mid latitudes during the last 24 hours, particular during the
night time hours. Depressed conditions are expected to continue
for several days as geomagnetic activity increases.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
20 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
21 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Slightly depressed ionospheric support observed over
the last 24 hours in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions,
particularly during the night time hours. Conditions are expected
to remain depressed over Northern Australian regions with increasing
depressions over all Australasian regions over the next several
days as geomagnetic activity increases.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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