[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 19 09:49:33 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the last 
24 hours from 370 km/s to below 320 km/s. It is expected to rise 
again over the next several days due to a recurrent coronal hole 
high speed stream becoming geo-effective. Solar activity was 
very low and is expected to remain very low as there are no active 
sunspots regions currently on disk. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120011
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Learmonth            2   11110011
      Culgoora             4   22120111
      Camden               2   11120011
      Canberra             2   01020011
      Hobart               2   01021011
      Casey(Ant)           5   12311121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1001 0010     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
21 Oct    25    Active. Chance minor storm periods. 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 October 
and is current for interval 20-21 October. Quiet geomagnetic 
conditions observed over the last 24 hours as solar wind parameters 
continue to decline. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over 
the next 24 hours. An equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected 
to be in geoeffective position within the next 48 hours which 
is expected to produce significant geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor

COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions observed at low and 
mid latitudes during the last 24 hours, particular during the 
night time hours. Depressed conditions are expected to continue 
for several days as geomagnetic activity increases. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
20 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
21 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 

COMMENT: Slightly depressed ionospheric support observed over 
the last 24 hours in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions, 
particularly during the night time hours. Conditions are expected 
to remain depressed over Northern Australian regions with increasing 
depressions over all Australasian regions over the next several 
days as geomagnetic activity increases. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    45500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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