[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 17 09:42:27 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Currently there are no active sunspots on disk. Conditions are
expected to remain unchanged for the next few days. The north-south
component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field), Bz fluctuated
between +/-4nT throughout the UT day. Solar wind velocity continued
its steady decline, from 520km/s at 0000UT to be 420km/s at the
time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 8 33222112
Learmonth 6 11223212
Culgoora 6 21212222
Camden 5 11212212
Canberra 5 21222201
Hobart 6 12213212
Casey(Ant) 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3323 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 7 Quiet
18 Oct 6 Quiet
19 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Solar wind parameters continue to decline. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Recent enhanced
solar wind paramters may have been due to either coronal hole
effects or a solar sector boundary crossing.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions observed over all
latitudes during the last 24 hours. Improving conditions are
expected for all latitudes over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
18 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for all regions in the last
24 hours. Improving conditions are expected for all regions over
the next 2 days, with mostly normal HF conditions expected for
Northern Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 571 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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