[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 24 10:51:25 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain very low. There are
no sunspots on the disc. Evidence of returning AR921 on east
limb in SOHO spacecraft images. AR921 due to return to disc on
24th November. X-ray background flux observed on the GOES satellite
remained at A-class levels. Activity expected to remain very
low unless AR921 more active than last pass. Solar wind speed
increased with the recurrent coronal hole from 350-530 km/sec.
IMF Bz was mainly southward, particularly 03-13UT, 15-19UT and
oscillating north-south from 20UT to the present, conducive to
merging with the geomagnetic field. A small CME was observed
on the south-west limb emerging from the SOHO LASCO C3 disc ~14UT.
There was no Forbush decrease evident in the Mawson Antarctic
station cosmic ray data and so the event does not appear to be
earthward directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 23434333
Darwin 13 22333333
Townsville 16 22344333
Learmonth 18 13444333
Culgoora 11 12333233
Camden 14 12334333
Canberra 15 12434333
Hobart 16 13434333
Casey(Ant) 22 34543333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 16 active
25 Nov 11 Unsettled
26 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was unsettled to active over the
UT day due to a combination of solar wind speed increase from
350-530 km/sec and also IMF Bz was mainly southward, conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field. Activity is expected to
be unsettled to active over 24 Nov UT day due to enhanced solar
wind speed from recurrent coronal hole and declining to unsettled
or quiet on 25 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs up to 30% continued at low latitudes
again today, during night hours. Degradations in HF conditions
will be observed 24-25 November. Mid-latitudes currently normal
but expected to be depressed over the day due to geomagnetic
activity and lack of ionisation due to nil sunspots. At equatorial
latitudes, degradation from ongoing local processes and enhanced
geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high-speed solar-wind.
At polar latitudes, degradation due to the rise in geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole and also merging of IMF and geomagnetic
field due to predominant Bz southwards.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 6 20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australasian equatorial region (PNG, Niue, northern
Australia) has again shown strong depressions overnight in MUFs,
up to 30%. Mid-latitudes are still around average, resisting
the expected decrease from enhanced geomagnetic activity. Degradations
in HF conditions should be expected on 24-25 Nov due to increased
geomagnetic activity and a lack of sunspot activity producing
ionising flux to regenerate the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 32500 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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