[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Region 10923 has produced a C-class xray flare yesterday, 
expect the possibility for isolated C-class x-ray flares to continue. 
The solar wind is approximately 470 km/s with the Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly between -/+2nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   11100012
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   11100002
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             1   11100011
      Hobart               2   21100001
      Casey(Ant)           5   2-311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2322 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov     4    Quiet 
15 Nov     4    Quiet 
16 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect generally quiet conditions for the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Low latitudes have shown mild depressions, expect this 
trend to continue over the next several days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Nov     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect mild depressions to continue in the Northern 
Australian region, otherwise normal conditions should prevail. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 541 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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