[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:21:58 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
Type III radio noise observed over the period. Active Region
923 appears to be in decay, but still has potential for isolated
C-class flare activity. Solar wind speed remains elevated at
Slow-drifting Type IV noise continuum observed on Learmonth and
Culgoora Radiospectrographs this morning.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 35354232
Darwin 16 34343223
Townsville 18 34344332
Learmonth 20 34254332
Culgoora 20 34354232
Camden 21 35354222
Canberra 22 35354232
Hobart 26 35455232
Casey(Ant) 25 -6443232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Camden 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 0000 1344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 12 Unsettled
12 Nov 6 Quiet
13 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Active geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes
during the mid-part of the UT day, with conditions reaching minor
to major storm levels at mid to high latitudes. Solar wind speed
reached 600 km/s at 13UT and remains at that level. Moderate
Bz component fluctuations were observed in the first half of
the UT day, declining to mild fluctuations about neutral over
the second half of the day. Conditions are expected to be mostly
unsettled on day one as the coronal hole wind stream declines,
becoming mainly quiet days two and three. Chance of isolated
active intervals at mid to high latitudes day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed at low latitudes. Extended
periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal conditions next
three days. Possibility of periods of disturbance at high latitudes
day one.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Localised strong daytime enhancements.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
12 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Periods of degradation observed for Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further intervals
of disturbance possible day one, mainly Antarctic region. Expect
variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 14300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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