[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 7 10:48:29 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar region 921 produced two C-class flares during
the past 24 hours and has the chance of producing further C-class
flare activity. A type II sweep was observed at 1742UT on 6 November
in association with the larger of the two flares from region
921. LASCO imagery indicates CME's were associated with both
flares, however, both CMEs appears to be predominantly eastward
directed and are therefore not expected to be very geoeffective.
A CME associated with the disappearing solar filament and type
II sweep observed on 5 November appears to have been from a backside
event and is therefore not expected to be geoeffective. A small
coronal hole towards the center of the disk will be rotating
into a geoeffective position over the next few days, with mildly
elevated solar wind speeds expected. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline slowly over the past 24 hours down to below 340 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21210012
Darwin 2 11110012
Learmonth 2 21100002
Culgoora 7 3-210123
Camden 2 11110111
Canberra 2 11200011
Hobart 2 11200011
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0123 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 6 Quiet
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next two
days. Geomagnetic activity levels are expected to increase on
day three as the result of mildly elevated solar wind speeds
from a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. There is the small
chance that a glancing blow from recent CMEs may further compound
the coronal hole effects, although these CMEs are not expected
to be very geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times
for low-mid latitude regions. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for all latitudes over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed during the local
day for central Australian regions only. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for all regions for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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