[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 5 10:42:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: There is still the small chance of isolated C-class
flare activity from solar region 921. Solar wind speeds have
been slightly elevated during the past 24 hours ranging from
approximately 400-450 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 23221222
Darwin 7 23221222
Learmonth 7 23221212
Culgoora 8 23221223
Camden 7 23221222
Canberra 7 23221222
Hobart 7 23221212
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1313 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov 6 Quiet
07 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Slightly elevated solar wind speeds have resulted in
some active and isolated minor storm periods towards the polar
cap latitudes with activity remaining mostly quiet to unsettled
at all other latitudes. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability was observed at all latitudes
during the past 24 hours, with depressions of 10-20% observed
at times. Continuing variability at all latitudes is expected
again for 5 November, with depressions of 10-20% likely at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed for all
regions with mild depressions observed at times. Variable ionospheric
conditions are expected to continue for all regions, with the
chance of mildly depressed intervals at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 12.1 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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