[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: There is the possibility of C-class flare activity from 
solar region 921. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22113212
      Darwin               5   12113112
      Learmonth            6   21013222
      Culgoora             6   21113222
      Camden               6   12113212
      Canberra             6   12113212
      Hobart               5   12113211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-3232--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov     5    Quiet 
03 Nov     6    Quiet 
04 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions observed at high latiudes, 
with isolated active intervals at polar cusp/cap latitudes. Generally 
quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Continuing HF variability observed at equatorial-low 
latitudes. Conditions have been near-normal for all other latitudes. 
Expect continuing equatorial-low latitude variability with normal 
conditions at all other latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 
04 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric variability observed Equatorial/PNG 
regions. Mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Expect continuing variable ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N 
Aus regions, with the chance of intervals of mild depressions. 
Mostly near predicted monthly values for all other regions for 
the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    62800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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