[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole has just passed central meridian 
and is expected to become geoeffective on about 1 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011111
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Learmonth            0   00000011
      Culgoora             0   01000010
      Camden               6   22112222
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Hobart               1   10011010
      Casey(Ant)           7   22222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2211 2123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
31 May    12    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active period possible 
                later in the day. 
01 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on 
31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
31 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair     

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade night time communications. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 May    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
   at night. Spread F observed at all stations during
   night hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
31 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade night time communications. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    53900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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