[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Bz turned southward at approximately 18 UT. Solar wind 
density decreased while speed increased to about 400 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110021
      Darwin               3   12110021
      Learmonth            2   11110011
      Culgoora             2   11110011
      Camden               6   22211132
      Canberra             1   01100011
      Hobart               1   01100011
      Casey(Ant)           7   22222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 May     7    Quiet 
28 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Changes in solar conditions are not expected to cause 
extended, increased geomagnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
27 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
28 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

COMMENT: Spread F, mostly during night hours, can be expected 
to degrade communications. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced at times at
   all stations. Sporadic E observed at most stations during
   afternoon and early evening. Spread F observed at all
   stations between about 09 and 20 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
27 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
28 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Night communications likely to be degraded due to spread 
F. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    52100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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